tonytalkssports My Take on Sports, particularly the Yankees, Maple Leafs and Browns

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Outfielders (Part 2)

2* Players

Suzuki - Sea : Not one of my favorite players.  Will give you average, steals, runs, xtra base hits.

Pence - Houst:  I like Hunter Pence this year.  At 27, he could be poised for a big year.

Ethier - LAD: Andre is another player I like.  However, not sure I would take him until I had a number 1 outfielder.

Stanton - Fla: This kid could be the breakout player for 2011.  He hit 20 HR's in 100 games last year.  At that rate should have a monster year.

Bautista - Tor (3b elig): Will provide power but I highly doubt another 50 home run season.  May be worth more at third base.

Rios - CWS:  Alex Rios had a good season last year with the White Sox.  With a strong line-up and hitting in a great hitters park. Look for another solid season.

Ellsbury - Bost: If healthy, Ellsbury provides SB's, average, runs and extra base hits.  However, there is some questions about his recovery from rib injury.

Swisher - NYY: I love this guy.  Good source for power and RBI's.

Werth - Wash: I'm a little bit concerned about Werth.  Leaves a great hitters park and a good line-up and goes to a not-so-good hitters park and weak line-up.

Kemp - LAD:  This guy should bounce back.  But he won't be on my team.

D.Young - Minn: Young finally played up to his potential last year.  Solid pick for 2011.

Rasmus - STL: Will provide power.  Has feuded with Tony LaRussa so keep an eye on that situation.

Bay - NYM: Bay had a terrible season last year for the Mets.  I would expect a bounce back season.

A. Jones - Balt: It's time for Jones to start playing up to the hype that he received a couple of years ago.

Players To Watch: Pence, Stanton, Swisher, Rios and Young are solid picks.  Ethier should also have a good season.

Black Balled List: Ichiro Suzuki and Matt Kemp.  I don't know what it is but I don't like Ichiro.  Maybe its because he goes by his first name.  I drafted Matt Kemp last year in the first round and he killed me.  He will probably have a bounce back year but I could care less.  He has a permanent place on my black balled list.

Look for Part 3 of the Outfielder List later this afternoon.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Oufielders (part 1)

This is the first part of a 3 part projection list for outfielders.  There are no real superstars however there are plenty of players who can help you with different categories.  The key is getting those players who can help you in multiple categories.

4*: Braun - Milw, Gonzalez - Colo: Ryan Braun is a legitimate first round pick who has a proven track record.  Carlos Gonzalez burst onto the scene last year and was a pleasant surprise for his fantasy owners.  While CarGo will go high in the draft, remember last year was his first big fantasy season.

3*: Holliday - Stl, Crawford - Bost, Hamilton - Tex, Choo - Cleve, Cruz- Tex, Upton - Ariz., Heyward - Atl:  Matt Holliday is truly the model of consistency and is worth a second round pick.  Carl Crawford should do well in Boston and provide HR's and SB's along with average.  Josh Hamilton and Shin Cho Choo are both good fantasy players however injuries are a concern.  Choo has a sore shoulder so keep an eye on that.  As far as Hamilton goes, if he remains injury free he could carry your fantasy team but there's always a chance of him going down.  Nelson Cruz has become one of my favorite players.  If this guy can stay healthy he can dominate.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside but I would probably like him to be my second outfielder.  The same can be said for Jason Heyward.  This is Heyward's second season so have to be concerned about sophomore jinx.

Players to watch:  If Braun falls in your lap in the first round take him.  He's solid.  The same can be said for Matt Holliday.  Carl Crawford is a great selection in the second round.  The others all have some type of risk attached.

Black Balled List:  None in this group.  But wait until we get to the rest.

Part 2 will cover all of the 2* players and part 3 will cover the 1*'s.

2011 Fantasy Projections: 3rd Baseman

The third base position is a critical one in terms of fantasy baseball because it typically provides power stats and decent to above average batting average.  However, there may be a bigger drop off than at the shortstop position when you get by the top six.

5*: Evan Longoria - TB: Longoria is the class of the 3rd base position.  If you have the opportunity in the 1st round take him.

4*: Wright - NYM, ARod - NYY: Both of the Big Apple's 3rd basemen are players who could really help your fantasy team this year.  David Wright is solid and will probably go somewhere in the first round.  There are some indications that ARod might be poised for a banner year and is definitely worth a pick early in the second round.

3*: Ryan Zimmerman - Wash: I really like this guy.  He's proven that he can hit with power and a good batting average.  Definitely someone to target.

2*: Beltre - Tex, Bautista - Tor(of - elig), Stewart - Colo, Ramirez - Cubs: There are no sure things here based on history.  Beltre has had some injury problems this spring and the history of dropping off big time after signing a new contract.  Bautista broke out on the scene last year.  Not sure we can expect a 50 - plus home run season again.  Stewart is a tease.  Last year I thought was the year for him to break out but injuries derailed that thought.  Aramis Ramirez is one of my old reliables.  Last year, he killed me.  Many are saying look for a bounce back year.

1*: McGehee - Milw, Alvarez - Pitt, Young - Tex, Reynolds - Balt, Sandoval - SF: Casey McGehee could be a nice play here especially if you miss out on the above listed players.  Pedro Alvarez also has a lot of upside.  Hopefully, he continues to perform.  Michael Young may not play 3rd this year but he qualifies.  You certainly could do worse however there was some decline in his game and that could be why Texas went after Beltre.  If you can take the terrible batting average then Reynolds is your guy.  Sandoval bursted onto the scene two years ago and fell way back last year.  From where I sit he is a very risky pick.

Players To Watch: Prado - (2b elig), Rolen - Cinc, Valencia - Minn: Prado gives you versatility, batting average, runs and on-base percentage.  Scott Rolen helped me out last year with Aramis struggling.  However, Scott is another year older.  Valencia is a young player who the Twins will have at third base.  Not sure if you want him as your starter at this point.

Black Balled List: Mark Reynolds - I can't put up with the strikeouts and the ridiculously low average.

It's important to get power stats from this position.  As a result go after one of those top six as soon as you can.  If you miss out, Casey McGehee and Pedro Alvarez may be good alternatives.

2011 Fantasy Projections: Shortstops

This is a pretty tough position after the top two players.  There are plenty who could serve you well however they also could give you headaches.

4*: Ramirez - Fla,  Tulowitzki - Colo.: These two will both go in the first round with Ramirez being in the top three.

3*: Reyes - NYM, Rollins - Philly: Both of these two could really help your fantasy team however injuries are in their histories.  It's come out that the Mets may not want Reyes back after this year.  How that will effect him will be interesting.

2*: Jeter - NYY, Ramirez - CWS:  I actually like both of these guys over Reyes and Phillips.  I really believe that Jeter will be a man on a mission this year looking to prove the critics wrong.  Alexei Ramirez is one of my favorites and should do well in that very good White Sox line-up

1*: Castro - Cubs, Drew - Ariz, Escobar - Tor, Hardy - Balt, Tejada - SF, Peralta - Det (elig): I really like Starlin Castro and look for him to have a good year.  Stephen Drew is also one of my favorites and I believe he may be of better value than Reyes.  I really think J.J. Hardy may have a good year in Baltimore.

Players to Watch: Asdrubal Cabrera - Cleve, Ian Desmond - Wash, Alex Gonzalez - Atl:  Cabrera and Desmond could both be good fantasy options this year.  Cabrera will bat lead off for the Tribe and should get plenty of stolen base opportunities.  Desmond had double-digit numbers in home runs and stolen bases in his first full season last year.  I think he will continue to build on that.

Black Balled List:  Rollins makes my list because he killed me a few seasons ago.  I will not draft him no matter what.

I'm hoping if I don't get the first pick that I'm not in a position where I would have to take Hensley or Tulo.  I'm willing to take a gamble with those two and one star players.

Add-on To Second Base Projections

I really screwed up as I left off Dan Uggla from my projections list.  Uggla is a solid 3* performer for the Atlanta Braves.  Certainly deserves to be in the Pedroia-Phillips category.  Supplies power and rbi's from a position that rarely does.

2011 Fantasy Projections: Second Basemen

The second base position has a couple of studs but then there are plenty of risk/reward candidates.

5*: Robinson Cano - NYY

4*: Chase Utley - Philly

3*: Dustin Pedroia - Bost, Brandon Phillips - Cincy

2*: Kinsler - Tex, Figgins - Sea, K.Johnson - Ariz, Hill - Tor, Walker - Pitt

1*: Weeks - Milw, Prado - Atl, Beckham - CWS, Kendrick - LAA, Young - Colo

Nishioka - Minn, Brignac - TB

Cano is a stud and will be a first round pick for sure.  Because of the scarcity of top talent, Utley will go in the early second.  Utley is getting older but still should be able to produce.  Pedroia and Phillips are good picks once the top two are gone.  Both have possible health issues that need to be followed but if healthy can certainly help your fantasy team.

The 2* players all could help your team however there are no sure things.  Kinsler can be awesome however he has had a history of injury issues.  Figgins is not the Figgins of old.  He's usually one of my old reliables.  He will still get you stolen bases but hopefully the average will come back.  Kelly Johnson had a good year last year and hopefully that continues.  Aaron Hill had a big year in 2009 and not so big last year.  He would be worth a flyer on particularly as your draft goes into the mid to late rounds.  Neil Walker was a great waiver pickup for me last year.  He is certainly worth a selection however there are no guarantees as last year was his first year.

1*: Richie Weeks could have been ranked higher.  Again injuries always an issue with him however as the draft winds down you can certainly do worse.  Martin Prado is a decent pick and will eventually have outfield eligibility as he is being penciled in there to start for the Braves.  Gordon Beckham could be a real steal.  The kid made a position switch last year and its believed to have hurt him at the plate.  Beckham did come on toward the end of the year.  Howie Kendrick seems to be the perennial breakout candidate.  I'm tired of waiting.  Eric Young could be an interesting selection however risky going into the season with him as your starter.

Two guys to keep an eye on are Reid Brignac of Tampa Bay and Tsuyoshi Nishioka of Minnesota.  Both will start.  Brignac could be a useful player.  Nishioka has been heavily hyped coming to the U.S.  Could be high reward but could also be high risk.

Black Balled List: Howie Kendrick - LAA

2011 Fantasy Projections: First Basemen

There are plenty of top rated first basemen and its a key to get one because they provide a great source for home runs and rbi's.  Here we go:

First Base

5* - Pujols - STL, Cabrera - Det. These two are both top 1st round picks.  Not worried about Cabrera's off the field issues.

4* - Howard - Phil, Votto - Cinc, Fielder - Milw, Texiera - NYY, Gonzalez - Bost.  All 5 of these guys are big time contributors for a fantasy team.  Gonzalez and Votto will probably go in the 1st round.  The other 3 could fall to early to mid 2nd.  If you have the chance get one of them.

3* - Youkilis - Bost. Solid player who will eventually have 3b eligibility.

2* - Morales - LAA, Dunn - CWS, Morneau - Minn, Lee - Balt, Pena - Cubs, Posey - SF (C elig).  I really like Morales and Dunn here.  Both could have monster seasons.  If Morneau is healthy he is a big time producer.   Derek Lee could be very interesting in Baltimore as could Carlos Pena with the Cubs.  With both you may be rolling the dice. 

1* - Konerko - CWS, Davis - NYM, Sanchez - Fla, Butler - KC, Huff - SF, Loney - LAD.  Davis and Sanchez could be pleasant surprises this year.  Billy Butler is great for average, doubles and rbi's.  Hopefully more home runs will follow for Butler.  Huff and Loney are ok but if they are your starters you are going to need power from other sources.

With this position I think the key is to try to get someone in the 3* to 5* group.  I would also feel comfortable with Dunn and Morales.  The other 2 *'s could pan out but there are some risks. 

Black Balled List: Carlos Lee - Houst: Lee killed me last year as he was a third round pick who had a terrible first half and beefed up on home runs and rbi's after he killed my fantasy season.   He is also outfield eligible.  Kevin Youkilis - Bost:  I'm not a big Youkilis fan and his injured season last year also killed me.  I will need to be pushed to the brink to select him .

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Catchers

Today I'm going to give you my rankings for catchers in a mixed league format.  You will see that they are ranked by a number and a star (3*, 4*, etc.).

CATCHERS

3* Mauer - Minn

3* V. Martinez - Det (1b elig)

3*McCann - Atl

3* Posey - SF (1b elig)

2* Santana - Cleve

2* Weiters - Balt

1* Montero - Ariz

1* Posada - NYY

1* Soto - Cubs

1* Suzuki - Oak

Keep an eye on: Napoli - Texas, Pierzynski - CWS, Martin - NYY, Jaso - TB and Ianetta - Colo

I usually do not draft a catcher very early in the draft and quite frankly I think each of the top 4 have issues.  Don't fall into the trap of having to take one because Joe Mauer has been picked and the catcher run will start.  I think Santana will probably be a popular pick and Wieters will probably fall because of all the hype around him last year but I think he will be of good value this year.

I really like the 1*'s.  I really like Miguel Montero.  Before he got hurt last year he was swinging a hot bat.  When he came back from injury he struggled but picked it up in the last month.  I truly believe that being the DH for the Yankees is going to make Jorge Posada a better hitter being that he won't be so banged up.  Looking for a bounce back season for Geovany Soto and he could be picked mid to late rounds as is the case with Suzuki from Oakland who is a very consistent hitter.

Guys to look at if you get shut out of any of the above are listed.  They all will be starters and Martin could truly be a find if he stays healthy.  This guy was a two-time All-Star in the National League.

Rookie possibilities: Jesus Montero -NYY (crowded field but could make the big club) and Josh Thole - NYM.

BLACK BALLED - NONE  No one here to be on this dreaded list mainly because I really don't like having to rely on this position for anything but playing everyday 260-280 batting average and 15-20 homers would be nice.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections Coming Soon

I have been playing fantasy baseball for over 20 years, almost exclusively in head-to-head leagues.  Beginning this week I will give my projections for each position for mixed league head-to-head leagues.  My rankings are based upon my own research and personal thoughts and preferences. 

Some general observations:  Use early rounds for hitters, especially power RBI guys.  I usually pass on starting pitchers until the 4th or 5th round and this year I think the pitching possibilities are great.  While I have faciliated back and forth, you do need relievers and you should make sure you have a couple at least.  The other thing to keep in mind, don't get sucked into taking to many of your favorite team's players.  I have done that and if your favorite team struggles more than likely the players you drafted will be struggling so it turns out being double aggravation.  Makes for a lousy summer. 

There are also some players who I seem to always gravitate toward and others who have made my infamous Black Balled List.  These are usually players who I have drafted and have turned in terrible seasons for me or players who I just can't stand.  Those players will be identified and you can do what you want with them.

I love fantasy baseball.  It's my favorite fantasy sport with fantasy hockey being close.  Throughout the season I will mention players who you should consider to pick up and those who are becoming real anchors (and possible Black Ball List candidates).

I'll be starting with catchers sometime this week, hopefully as early as tomorrow evening.

David Stern Where Are You??

Let me first start out by saying that I am not a big NBA fan.  It wasn't always that way.  When I think back the 69-70 NY Knick team turned me on to the NBA.  And but for the Larry Bird Celtics, I guess I would have to consider myself a Knick fan.  The last time I was really in to it was the Patrick Ewing Knicks and who can forget that ill-fated finals against the Rockets.  With the acquisition of Carmelo Anthony, my interest has been rekindled and I actually watched a little over a quarter of last night's game against the Bucks.

While I can see myself being drawn back to following again, a talk show on a radio station out of Toronto got me thinking about what's going on with the NBA.  Think about it.  We are slowly seeing the beginning of the creation of 5 or 6 super teams: Boston, Los Angeles, NY Knicks, Miami and with yesterday's trade possibly New Jersey.  As I said I don't know a lot about the NBA but a lot is being made of the Nets acquiring Deron Williams.  Anyhow, what about the rest of the league??

I watch Sportstime Ohio and does anyone give a damn about the fans of the Cavaliers??  This team had the best record in basketball last year.  This year: sets the record for most losses of any professional sports team!!  What about the Raptors???  Will any star look to go to Toronto???  What about Denver now???  And what will happen to Orlando and New Orleans when Dwight Howard and Chris Paul force their way off of their current teams???

Apparently, David Stern could give a damn less.  Let's take Cleveland for example.  This year, season tickets were purchased with the expectation that Lebron would be playing.  Will anyone be shocked to see season ticket sales plummet for the 2011-12 season???  As many in Cleveland have said, it will take at least 5 years before the Cavs are competitive again.

There is talk that the NBA is headed for a lock out.  Something has to give because the league is in serious trouble.  Super teams are great for television and promotions.  But what is going to happen in the lesser team arenas.  Places, like Indiana, Sacramento, Charlotte.  Stern's lack of leadership on this issue is disturbing.  Of course I'm sure he loves the fact that the Knicks are back to being a franchise that matters.  Great for TV and promotions.  But David Stern should be looking out for all of the franchises and it is clear that he is not.

Unless the Memphis and Cleveland's of the world ban together, contraction may be what ultimately happens.  There is a need for some leadership out of the Commissioner's office.  Has anyone seen David Stern????