tonytalkssports My Take on Sports, particularly the Yankees, Maple Leafs and Browns

Week 5 NFL Picks

Last week was another bad one as I went 2-2. Need to pick up the pace to get over .500 as I'm 6-8 for the season. So here we go:

* Cincinnati (+2 1/2) at Jacksonville: The Bengals defense were able to keep their team in the game last week against the high flying Buffalo Bills. This week they face a Jaguar team led by rookie Blaine Gabbert. Not sure the Jaguars should be favored against anybody. The Bengals are 2-0 as road dogs while Jacksonville is 0-3-1 ATS. I'm taking the Bengals with the points and a good chance they win out right.

* San Diego (-4) at Denver: The Chargers are clearly the better team and are 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 games these 2 teams played. They are 6-1-2 as a favorite. No reason to see that changing as the Chargers should cover the four points handily despite missing Antonio Gates.

* Atlanta (+6) vs Green Bay: I am really hesitant about picking the Falcons but I can't see the Packers covering the 6 points. The Falcons will be looking to avenge their playoff loss last year to the Pack. This game should be a high scoring affair. Not sure if Falcons win out right but can't see the Packers covering the spread so I'm going with the Falcons.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week did not go very well as I went 1-2 to lower my season record to 4-6. If that phantom holding call wasn't made against the Bears, I would have won that one and Atlanta had numerous chances to pull their game out against Tampa Bay. But enough excuses. It's time to produce so here's my fearless picks for Week 4 in the National Football League:

* Cincinnati (+3) over Buffalo: The Bills are on a high coming off their big come from behind win over the Patriots. The Bills high powered offense has scored a ton of points but two of those games were against the Chiefs and Patriots who's defenses are terrible. The Bengals defense is not bad, in fact they are pretty good. The Bengals should be able to run the ball on the Bills and they should be able to give Andy Dalton some time to make some plays. The Bengals defense should keep this game closer than you think as the Bengal front four will be able to pressure Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buffalo 21 Cincinnati 20.

* Pittsburgh (+4) over Houston: The Steelers looked awful against the Colts and look like a team in trouble. While Houston has improved this year its hard to believe that they are a 4 point favorite over the Steelers. This is a big game and I can't see Pittsburgh losing and even if they do the game will be close. Pittsburgh 28 Houston 27.

* Minnesota (-1 1/2) over Kansas City: Kansas City played much better against San Diego last week however Minnesota has the better team in this game. The Vikings once again blew a lead losing in overtime to Detroit 23-20. The Viking defense will shut down the weakened KC running game putting pressure on Matt Cassel. In a nightmare season that might have the Chiefs in line to select Andrew Luck in the NFL Draft, Minnesota prevails on Sunday. Minnesota 27 Kansas City 17.

* New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville: I hate to give 7 points on the road but this game is clearly a mismatch. Can't see the rookie Blaine Gabbert being able to match Drew Brees. Look for the Saints to score early and often. New Orleans 35 Jacksonville 14.

There you have it. Tomorrow a preview of the Yankee-Tigers series.

100 Win Red Sox CHOKE!!!!

In March, Josh Beckett predicted that his Red Sox would win 100 games this year with all of the talent they had. The rotund blow-hard John Kruk predicted that not only would the Red Sox win the AL East but they would be in the World Series. Fat Kruk also predicted that the Yankees would not make the playoffs. My, my, my, my what happened on the way to a Red Sox title??? They choked on their own arrogance.

Last off season, Theo Epstein went all out dropping a $142 million contract on Carl Crawford and acquiring Adrian Gonzalez to create what all of the experts were proclaiming, "the most awesome lineup in baseball." The pitching staff was suppose to be solid with Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey and Dice-K. And the bullpen, no problem as Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard would be a formidable back end. In the end, it all collapsed and I couldn't be happier.

Please don't tell me about injuries because the Yankees had their share of injuries this year. The fact is the Red Sox were 7-20 in the month of September. They had a 9 game lead on September 1st over Tampa. Go 8-19 and there is a playoff game today. Go 9-18 and they are heading to Texas. But the 100 win powerhouse couldn't pull it off.

The Yankees are always critiqued on their off season free agent moves. The Red Sox always get a pass particularly since 2004. But let's take a look. Dice-K: $50 million just to talk to him and then a $40 million contract. The guy had one good season. John Lackey: Brutal, just look at his numbers. Carl Crawford: $142 million for a left fielder who hit .255 and played terribly in the field. Adrian Gonzalez: Best months were May & June. August & September lowest monthly RBI totals for the season.

The boy genius, Theo Epstein had a terrible off season. And while were at it, the Yankees have historically been criticized for buying players and not developing their own. Gonzalez, Scutaro, Saltalamacchia, Crawford, Drew, Beckett, Dice-K, Lackey, Aceves, and Wakefield are all players brought in from outside of the Red Sox organization.

Since 2004, Red Sox fans have been as arrogant as their team. Stores in WNY would have Yankee, Met and Red Sox items for people to buy. I often found that amazing since we are better than 7 hours away from Boston. I could see Blue Jay and Indian items since there are big contingents of fans for those teams here in WNY. But with the 2004 comeback win over the Yankees in the ALCS and 2 World Series wins, Red Sox hats, shirts, jerseys and jackets suddenly popped up all over WNY. Somehow I don't ever remember seeing any prior to 2004.

Well, Red Sox fans you now are the owners of the Greatest Choke Act in Baseball History. It's going to be a hot off season on Yawkey Way.

Why Trash Sweetness??

All over the internet today there are reports about the release of a book by Jeff Pearlman called: "Sweetness: The Enigmatic Life of Walter Payton." An excerpt of the book will appear in the October 3rd edition of Sports Illustrated. I have not received my October 3rd edition of SI. All I have read are excerpts of the book that have appeared on the internet. The excerpts deal with Payton's drug use, suicidal tendencies and cheating on his wife. Twelve years since the man has died this book will be released and I ask the question, WHY???

I'm not sure what the purpose of the book is other than to try to make Pearlman some money. Do those who are Bears fans and fans of this great running back need to know all the gory details reportedly in the book?? Does the Payton family need to have all of this out there for the world to see??? In this day and age, I think we have all come to understand that our heroes may have feet of clay. With that being said I ask once again, what is the purpose of this book???

Based upon the excerpts I read, this book tells me that Walter Payton was a human being. It also tells me that the world of professional football is a violent and dangerous one. A world that drives players to play with pain for fear of being called a wuss and if that means shooting yourself up with drugs so be it. It's also a world that once you are no longer playing, you are cast aside to deal with the pain, the drugs and the realization that the dream is over.

My understanding of Payton was that he was guy who was a great teammate, great with the fans and did a lot of charity work. What demons he had inside he dealt with while he was alive. But the man is no longer with us and those demons died with him. If there is anything good that is to come out of this book its that the NFL needs to examine how they treat their players both when active and when they retire. Last January you had players calling out Jay Cutler for leaving the NFC Championship due to injury. His manhood was being questioned. Two weeks ago you had Tony Romo going out and playing with broken ribs and a punctured lung and he was called a warrior. Maybe he should have been called stupid and the Dallas Cowboys should have been called out for endangering Romo's career and more importantly his health. Somehow though I think it is highly unlikely that the NFL will take this as a call for greater player safety. Instead Pearlman will make some money, the NFL will applaud its "warriors" who play with pain and Sweetness gets trashed. Welcome to America 2011.

Leafs, Yankees & Week 3 NFL Picks

The last two days I was away on business and the hotel I was staying at lost wireless service so I was unable to access the blog. A lot has happened over these 2 days so I'm going to try to catch up this morning along with giving out my fearless Week 3 NFL picks.

* The Maple Leafs get ready for a back-to-back series against the Buffalo Sabres tonight. There are plenty of players who are looking good in the preseason. Jake Gardiner, the young defenseman, has played very well and logged 22 minutes of ice time in the 4-2 win over the Flyers. Matt Frattin and Joe Colborne have also played well and goalie Ben Scrivens is making a statement that he may be ready to play in the NHL. All of this is good news as the Leaf organization is finally filled with quality prospects. Whatever you want to say about Brian Burke there is no question that he has built up the farm system to a level that has not been seen for years.

* On Wednesday the Yankees became the 2011 American League Eastern Division Champions. While this is important, they need to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This will mean that they will have to win at least 2 games out of their remaining 6. They will look to accomplish this starting tonight in a 3 game series against the Boston Red Sox in New York.

* The Yankees have the ability to singlehandedly knock the Red Sox out of the playoffs if they were to sweep them this weekend. The Red Sox have been terrible, going 5-16 in their last 21 games. This from a team that was all but pre-ordained by all of the talking heads on ESPN to be the AL World Series representative. All of the big money acquisitions have failed terribly. Kudos to Russell Martin for telling it the way I feel: "I hate the Red Sox".

* Week 3 NFL Picks: Last week I went 2-1 to raise my season record to 3-4. This week there are 2 games with no lines (Phil-NYG & Dallas-Wash) and so far favorites are 14-14 for the season. So much for trends!!!

Fearless Week 3 Picks:

New Orleans -4 over Houston: The Saints host the 2-0 Texans and are coming off a big win at home against the Bears. This will be the Texans toughest test this season as they have defeated the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Saints have enough firepower to hand the Texans their first defeat.

Atlanta +1 1/2 over Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers are at home but I think the Falcons are the better team. This game should be close but if the Falcons are legitimate Super Bowl contenders they need to win a game like this. A loss and they start the season at 1-2.

Chicago +3 1/2 over Green Bay: In a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game, these two teams know each other like the back of their hands. The Bears are coming off a brutal loss to the Saints and they realize the importance of this game at home against their arch rivals. This game will be close and I like the points but it would not surprise me to see the Bears pull the upset outright.

Week 2 NFL Predictions

Well, last week did not start off well as I went 1-3 with my lone win being the Cincinnati Bengals over my Cleveland Browns. Underdogs last week went 8-6 and there were two games where the line was right on the money. So the heat is on this week to bounce back so here are my picks for week 2 in the NFL:

Tony's Tips (1-3)

* Pittsburgh -14 at home vs Seattle: I almost always hate laying this many points on a game but there is a reason why the oddsmakers have made the Steelers a 14 point favorite. Pittsburgh was humiliated and embarassed by the their division rival last week in Baltimore. There is no way that Mike Tomlin's team won't come out this week firing on all cylinders. Tavaris Jackson will be pressured big time by a Steeler defense that was torched last week. In the Steelers home opener, Pittsburgh hammers the Seahawks 31 - 7.

* Denver -3 1/2 at home over Cincinnati: The Broncos dropped a 23-20 decision to Oakland last week at home and the Bronco faithful are growing anxious with calls for Tim Tebow. The Bengals pulled out a win last week in Cleveland on a quick snap while the Browns were still coming out of their huddle. Not sure who will be the quarterback for Cincy but I don't think it will matter. The Broncos win this one 17 - 10.

* Atlanta +1 at home over Philadelphia: The Falcons were completely dominated by the Bears last week in Chicago. They come home for a Sunday night matchup against the Eagles in Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. I just can't see the Falcons going 0-2 to start the season. For that reason, I'm taking the Falcons to win this one 28 - 24.

Hopefully I'll have better luck this week. Tomorrow I will feature the opening of Maple Leaf training camp.

A Lost Sports Weekend

But for Peter Bourjos' error yesterday in the 7th inning, every team that I follow lost this weekend. In fact, some of the losses were down right demoralizing. Let's first start with the Yankees. The Yanks escaped Anaheim with a 6-5 win yesterday as Peter Bourjos misplayed a fly ball in the seventh inning. For the second straight start, Freddy Garcia struggled but the Yanks kept battling to avoid a sweep. On Friday they received a very good performance by Bartolo Colon and Saturday CC Sabathia struggled but only allowed one run over 6 innings but it wasn't enough. Prior to Sunday's game, the Yanks had only scored 1 run in California as Jered Weaver and Dan Haren shut them down. But to be fair, the Yankee offense has been decimated by injuries as ARod, Nick Swisher, Russell Martin and Andruw Jones all were out of the lineup. Jones returned yesterday and it is hoped that Swisher can play tonight.

Despite the Yankee struggles, Boston is really reeling as they were swept by the troublesome Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are now only 3 1/2 games behind the Red Sox for the wild card spot. The Yankees find themselves 3 1/2 games up on Boston, 4 games in the loss column. Tonight the Yankees will play the game in hand they have on Boston but the assignment won't be easy as they face Felix Hernandez.

Being a Notre Dame fan, the loss to Michigan on Saturday was gut-wrenching. After dominating the 1st half, the Fighting Irish found themselves down 28-24 with 1:30 seconds left in the game. Tommy Rees led the Irish comeback as he tossed a touchdown pass to Theo Riddick with 30 seconds remaining to give Notre Dame a 31-28 lead. But then Denard Robinson continued his mastery of the Irish by bringing the Wolverines back in 4 plays to throw a touchdown pass with 2 seconds remaining to give Michigan the victory. Notre Dame blew a 17 point lead going into the 4th quarter as Robinson worked his magic. A Notre Dame defense that had been stout for 3 quarters fell apart in the final quarter. I'm not sure how the Irish bounce back from this one as I'm sure the heat will be really turned up on Coach Brian Kelly. Things don't get easier as Michigan State rolls into South Bend this Saturday and going 0-3 will really have the ND faithful in a foul mood.

And then there are my beloved Cleveland Browns. With an easy schedule (supposedly) in the beginning of the season, many prognosticators had the Browns winning there first 4 or 5 games. Well, so much for that. After sleep walking through the 1st quarter, the Browns took a 14-13 lead at halftime over a Cincinnati Bengals team that many have predicted to finish in last place in the AFC North. The Browns had a chance to take firm control of the game in the 3rd quarter but had to settle for a field goal putting them ahead 17-13 going into the 4th quarter. But then led by Bruce Gradkowski, he of 3rd string fame when with the Browns, hit a wide open AJ Green and the Bengals went up 20-17 and the game was for all practical purposes over. Green was so wide open that I could have hit him for a touchdown. The reason why he was so wide open was because the Browns were slowly coming out of their huddle and the Bengals quick snapped the ball. None of the corners were out in coverage. And so once again the Browns lose a home opener. They haven't accomplished that feat since 1989.

Oh well, at least the Maple Leaf rookie team beat Chicago's and Pittsburgh's and thank God for Peter Bourjos.

NFL Predictions

Well, last night didn't start off well with my NFL picks, but I'll be right back at it today. But before my other Week One picks, here are my season predictions:

AFC East: Patriots 13-3, Jets 12-4, Bills 4-12, Dolphins 3-13
AFC North: Steelers 13-3, Ravens 12-4, Browns 9-7, Bengals 2-14
AFC South: Texans 10-6, Colts 7-9, Titans 6-10, Jaguars 1-15
AFC West: Chargers 10-6, Chiefs 7-9, Broncos 5-11, Raiders 3-13

Wild Cards: Jets and Ravens

1st round: Jets over Texans Ravens over Chargers

2nd Round: Patriots over Ravens Jets over Steelers

AFC Championship Game: Patriots over Jets

NFC East: Eagles 13-3, Giants 11-5, Cowboys 9-7, Redskins 5-11
NFC North: Packers 11-5, Bears 11-5, Lions 8-8, Vikings 4-12
NFC South: Saints 12-4, Falcons 11-5, Buccaneers 10-6, Panthers 4-12
NFC West: Cardinals 8-8, Rams 6-10, 49ers 5-11, Seahawks 3-13

Wild Cards: Giants and Bears

1st Round: Saints over Bears Giants over Cardinals

2nd Round: Eagles over Cardinals Packers over Giants

NFC Championship Game: Eagles over Packers

Super Bowl: Patriots over Eagles

Tony's Tips (0-1):

Well its time to rebound off of last night's disappointing loss so here is what I got for the rest of Week One:

NY Giants -3 over Washington: I find it hard to believe that Tom Coughlin won't have his team ready for this one particularly with all of the negative press the Giants have received in the pre season. The game is in Washington, but the Giants have the better QB and better defense.

Cincinnati +6 1/2 over Cleveland: You all know I am a Browns fan so this is a tough one. While I see the Browns winning the game, I'm not convinced that the Browns should be 6 1/2 point favorites. Bengals will keep it close in the 1st of 2 installments of the Battle of Ohio.

Tampa Bay -1 1/2 over Detroit: The Lions have received a lot of hype this year and they will be improved. But I like the direction the Bucs are heading in led by their young quarterback Josh Freeman. I'm looking for the Bucs to win their home opener in what might be a defensive battle.

There you have it. Tomorrow, back on the Yankees trail after seeing them lose two in a row to the Orioles. Fortunately, the Red Sox lost 2 to the Blue Jays. A great sports weekend ahead. Stay tuned.

NFL Starts Tonight!!!!

Tonight the National Football League opens up with a match-up between the defending champion Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints. This game highlights two of the top quarterbacks in football in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and should spark an offensive display this evening.

With the NFL starting up, beginning tomorrow and every Friday, I will give my picks for the upcoming weekend for football. Unlike some, I will keep track of how successful I am with my picks and hopefully we can have some fun with this. Tomorrow, I will also give my picks for all of the division winners, wild cards and ultimate Super Bowl champion.

One of my picks for this weekend involves tonight's game at Lambeau Field. I would be shocked if this game is not high scoring. Because of that, I'm going to take the Saints +4. I don't see either defense being able to stop the other team's offense.

More tomorrow.....

Pryor Suspension – Right Move

In reading stories from various outlets, there is a considerable amount of condemnation over Roger Goodell's decision to allow Terrell Pryor to enter the NFL supplemental draft but he will have to serve a 5 game suspension. It is the suspension that has some people in an uproar. I think I am in the minority but I don't have a problem with the suspension.

There are some who say that the Pryor suspension sets a dangerous precedent and they paint a scenario where a player gets into a fight while in college, gets disciplined at school and possibly charged criminally. Why wouldn't that player be given a suspension?? Typically, in cases like the one posed, the player does suffer a penalty: they get drafted lower. How many times do we hear about so-called character issues.

While I don't condone such actions and quite frankly if there is a pattern of behavior I would not want my team to draft such a player, the Pryor situation is different in my mind because Pryor's acts strike right at the core of college football. College football is the NFL's minor league system. If the NCAA is ultimately damaged by the creation of a new oragnization comprised of the BCS conferences, it is unclear what the relationship will be with this new organization and the NFL.

It is in the NFL's best interest to ensure that NCAA College Football cleans up its act. The NFL can send a strong message to college football. In fact, I would like to see players not be allowed to enter the draft unless they graduate. I'll even propose something more drastic: if a program is found in violation of NCAA rules, players from that university would not be eligible for the NFL draft for the length of the penalties.

Will any of this happen??? Absolutely not!!! But drastic times requires drastic measures. Kudos to Roger Goodell.