tonytalkssports My Take on Sports, particularly the Yankees, Maple Leafs and Browns

11Mar/110

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections – Outfielders (Part 3)

There are plenty of 0ne star players.  I will list them and tell you what I think.  Here we go:

1 star

Bruce - Cinc: This kid could be due for a break out season,   Hart - Milw: Definitely worth being on your fantasy team.  Check out his health situation,   Granderson - NYY:  One of my favorite people in baseball.  Has been on fire since batting adjustments made last year,   Markakis - Balt: Disappointing season last year. He should bounce back,   Beltran - NYM:  Big question mark health-wise.

Victorino - Phil: Gives you some power and provides stolen bases.  Nice guy to have in your outfield,   Ramirez - TB: He's older and prone to long absences,  Pierre - CWS:  One of my old reliables.  Can't beat the steals,  Kubel - Minn:  This guy is a great player to round out your outfield.  Provides home runs and RBI's,  Hunter - LAA: Every time I close the book on this guy he still produces,  Gardner - NYY:  Will get steals and should provide good on base percentage.  Hopefully hits better for average.

Pagan - NYM: This kid should provide steals and runs,  Snider - Tor:  This kid should provide homers and RBI's.  Lot of upside,   Ibanez - Phil:  Serviceable player to round out your roster,   Wells - LAA: Last year was a bounce back year for Vernon.  Be careful,   Lee - Houst(1b elig):  Could bounce back.  I have my doubts,    Ordonez - Det: I've always liked Magglio.  Nice guy to fill out roster,  Soriano - Cubs:  Will get you homers and decent average.  Injuries are a concern.

Bourn - Houst:  Not a better guy for stolen bases,  Quentin - CWS:  Has never reached his fantastic 2008 numbers.  Have to look at him now as someone to fill out your roster,  Sizemore - Cleve:  Health is a major issue.  May be ready by mid to late April.  Very risky,  Span - Minn:  This guy is a solid player.  Steals, runs and average are his fantasy game,   R. Davis - Tor:  Playing on artifical turf should up the steals and the average.

Byrd - Cubs: Consistent player to fill out your roster,  Zobrist - TB: I like him as a player, not so much for fantasy,  Crisp - Oak: Should get you steals if he can stay sober behind the wheel,  C. Young - Ariz:  Could be a 20-20 man this year,  Colvin - Cubs:  I like the kid but not sure I would draft him,  Cuddeyer - Minn (1b): Nice player to fill out the roster.

Players To Watch:  Bruce, Granderson, Pierre, Kubel, Gardner, Pagan, Bourn, Span, R.Davis, Cuddeyer and C. Young.

Black Balled List - Lee - Houst:  I've already spoke to this.  Simply - He killed me last year.  Ramirez - TB:  He's done and he is not one of my favorites. 

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11Mar/110

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Outfielders (Part 2)

2* Players

Suzuki - Sea : Not one of my favorite players.  Will give you average, steals, runs, xtra base hits.

Pence - Houst:  I like Hunter Pence this year.  At 27, he could be poised for a big year.

Ethier - LAD: Andre is another player I like.  However, not sure I would take him until I had a number 1 outfielder.

Stanton - Fla: This kid could be the breakout player for 2011.  He hit 20 HR's in 100 games last year.  At that rate should have a monster year.

Bautista - Tor (3b elig): Will provide power but I highly doubt another 50 home run season.  May be worth more at third base.

Rios - CWS:  Alex Rios had a good season last year with the White Sox.  With a strong line-up and hitting in a great hitters park. Look for another solid season.

Ellsbury - Bost: If healthy, Ellsbury provides SB's, average, runs and extra base hits.  However, there is some questions about his recovery from rib injury.

Swisher - NYY: I love this guy.  Good source for power and RBI's.

Werth - Wash: I'm a little bit concerned about Werth.  Leaves a great hitters park and a good line-up and goes to a not-so-good hitters park and weak line-up.

Kemp - LAD:  This guy should bounce back.  But he won't be on my team.

D.Young - Minn: Young finally played up to his potential last year.  Solid pick for 2011.

Rasmus - STL: Will provide power.  Has feuded with Tony LaRussa so keep an eye on that situation.

Bay - NYM: Bay had a terrible season last year for the Mets.  I would expect a bounce back season.

A. Jones - Balt: It's time for Jones to start playing up to the hype that he received a couple of years ago.

Players To Watch: Pence, Stanton, Swisher, Rios and Young are solid picks.  Ethier should also have a good season.

Black Balled List: Ichiro Suzuki and Matt Kemp.  I don't know what it is but I don't like Ichiro.  Maybe its because he goes by his first name.  I drafted Matt Kemp last year in the first round and he killed me.  He will probably have a bounce back year but I could care less.  He has a permanent place on my black balled list.

Look for Part 3 of the Outfielder List later this afternoon.

 

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10Mar/110

2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Oufielders (part 1)

This is the first part of a 3 part projection list for outfielders.  There are no real superstars however there are plenty of players who can help you with different categories.  The key is getting those players who can help you in multiple categories.

4*: Braun - Milw, Gonzalez - Colo: Ryan Braun is a legitimate first round pick who has a proven track record.  Carlos Gonzalez burst onto the scene last year and was a pleasant surprise for his fantasy owners.  While CarGo will go high in the draft, remember last year was his first big fantasy season.

3*: Holliday - Stl, Crawford - Bost, Hamilton - Tex, Choo - Cleve, Cruz- Tex, Upton - Ariz., Heyward - Atl:  Matt Holliday is truly the model of consistency and is worth a second round pick.  Carl Crawford should do well in Boston and provide HR's and SB's along with average.  Josh Hamilton and Shin Cho Choo are both good fantasy players however injuries are a concern.  Choo has a sore shoulder so keep an eye on that.  As far as Hamilton goes, if he remains injury free he could carry your fantasy team but there's always a chance of him going down.  Nelson Cruz has become one of my favorite players.  If this guy can stay healthy he can dominate.  Justin Upton has plenty of upside but I would probably like him to be my second outfielder.  The same can be said for Jason Heyward.  This is Heyward's second season so have to be concerned about sophomore jinx.

Players to watch:  If Braun falls in your lap in the first round take him.  He's solid.  The same can be said for Matt Holliday.  Carl Crawford is a great selection in the second round.  The others all have some type of risk attached.

Black Balled List:  None in this group.  But wait until we get to the rest.

Part 2 will cover all of the 2* players and part 3 will cover the 1*'s.

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9Mar/110

Leafs lose 4-3 in OT

Unfortunately, on a night that the Maple Leafs had an opportunity to pick up two points on Buffalo (who lost 3-1 to Pittsburgh) and Carolina, they settled for a point as they lost to the NY Islanders 4-3 in overtime.  This is an act that we have seen too often, playing dow n to their opponent, especially against the Isles.

It was rather disturbing to hear Keith Aulie say that they may have not respected their opponent. Hmmmm....  I give the kid credit for saying  it publicly but it is something that can't happen if you are fighting for your playoff lives.  In any sport, the theory is you need to play .500 against the tough teams and clean up on the weak ones.  Moreover, while the Leafs have played better of late, they have no business overlooking any opponent.

Aulie scored his first goal of his NHL career,  however the Leafs never led in a game that they needed badly.  Once again the power play was 0-3 making it now 0-24.  Definitely not a great stat particularly for a team in desperate need of points.  Brett Lebda had a terrible game last night and the defense last night as a whole seemed week.  The top two lines did not generate much offense which resulted in Ron Wilson shaking up the lines.

Thursday night the Leafs will be playing a Philadelphia team which will be seeking revenge for last week's loss to Toronto.  I have said all along that we need to see how this team progresses.  Last night, this team took a step backwards.  You can't leave a point on the table against a team like the Islanders.  Aulie's comment is troubling.  Young team or not it's inexcusable to overlook any opponent.  The Leafs are not the 80's Oilers.  Thursday they will be in tough and we will learn more about this team.  Will they respond and show the game they played last week in Philly?? Or will they back down and fold.  Hopefully, they learned something from last night.  I guess will find out Thursday.

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8Mar/110

Tuesday Thoughts

While waiting for the sun to come up, some things rolling around in my head:

The Big East Tournament opens today and it promises to be one of the best ever.  It will be interesting to see if Villanova can right the ship.  Of course, I'll be pulling for St. John's, Notre Dame and Louisville. 

Can you imagine the Garden if St. John's makes the finals??

Who would ever have thought that Notre Dame's basketball team would be ranked higher (4th in the country) than its football team(don't think it was ranked this year).

Certainly nice to hear about A.J. Burnett's impressive outing against the Phillies yesterday.  Sure hope this is a sign of things to come this season.

Is there anyone more unlucky than Francisco Cervelli??  This kid needs to skip the Grapefruit League having suffered a broken wrist a couple of years ago and now a broken foot as a result of a foul tip.  It's too bad because the 25 year old really came into camp determined and in great shape.

Been reading and listening to so called fantasy baseball experts who are predicting the continued decline of Derek Jeter.  Here's hoping the Captain shuts these know-it-alls up.

Yesterday marked the 40th anniversary of the first Ali-Frazier fight.  I remember listening to the round by round report on the local radio station.  The broadcaster received wire accounts of what happened each round and read them as they came across the wire.  I was a freshman in high school at the time and I remember winning a little bit of money on Smokin Joe's win.

The heavyweight class during the 60's and 70's was at its finest.  There were a number of legitimate contenders and the fights were classics with Muhammad Ali usually a participant against such foes as Frazier, Ken Norton and George Foreman.  Never will be the same.

Read the article in SI about the criminal element in college football.  The story listed the number of players who were charged with crimes ranging from possession of drugs and underage drinking to assault, domestic violence, rape and possession of a deadly weapon.  What was really disturbing was that schools indicated that they did not want to be known for looking to see if a recruit had a criminal record for fear that they would miss out on high end talent.  What a disgrace!  Of course the NCAA is more concerned about having no college football playoff than cleaning up its act.

Staying with college football, Yahoo reports that as a result of a two month investigation that Jim Tressel knew in April 2010 that his players were selling items which didn't come out until December 2010.  In December, Ohio State was saying they just found out about the situation.  If this is true, what a joke.

If you have the opportunity, take in Sportstime Ohio's Chuck's Last Call (CLC).  The show is on from 10pm to 11pm.  The host is Chuck Galetti.  Very knowledgeable and entertaining.

Chuck had Peyton Hillis on last week and it was a great show.  Hillis is a throw back and should do well in the west coast offense the Browns will institute this season (if there is a season). 

Does anybody no what the story is with Sidney Crosby's injury??  What a shame.  Best player in the game and its possible he won't play again this year.

All the controversy over the BYU player being suspended for having premarital sex misses the point.  The school had set certain rules and the kid violated it.  Case closed.

Here's hoping the Miami Heat keeps crying all the way out of the NBA playoffs with an early exit.

And finally, isn't it a shame that baseball doubleheaders have gone the way of rotary television antennas. (I'm really dating myself today)  There was nothing better than taking in a Sunday doubleheader.  Did it a few times at the old Municipal Stadium  watching the Yankees take on the Tribe.

Don't forget this weekend: Spring forward (I hate losing the hour of sleep but at least summer is around the corner).

7Mar/110

2011 Fantasy Projections: 3rd Baseman

The third base position is a critical one in terms of fantasy baseball because it typically provides power stats and decent to above average batting average.  However, there may be a bigger drop off than at the shortstop position when you get by the top six.

5*: Evan Longoria - TB: Longoria is the class of the 3rd base position.  If you have the opportunity in the 1st round take him.

4*: Wright - NYM, ARod - NYY: Both of the Big Apple's 3rd basemen are players who could really help your fantasy team this year.  David Wright is solid and will probably go somewhere in the first round.  There are some indications that ARod might be poised for a banner year and is definitely worth a pick early in the second round.

3*: Ryan Zimmerman - Wash: I really like this guy.  He's proven that he can hit with power and a good batting average.  Definitely someone to target.

2*: Beltre - Tex, Bautista - Tor(of - elig), Stewart - Colo, Ramirez - Cubs: There are no sure things here based on history.  Beltre has had some injury problems this spring and the history of dropping off big time after signing a new contract.  Bautista broke out on the scene last year.  Not sure we can expect a 50 - plus home run season again.  Stewart is a tease.  Last year I thought was the year for him to break out but injuries derailed that thought.  Aramis Ramirez is one of my old reliables.  Last year, he killed me.  Many are saying look for a bounce back year.

1*: McGehee - Milw, Alvarez - Pitt, Young - Tex, Reynolds - Balt, Sandoval - SF: Casey McGehee could be a nice play here especially if you miss out on the above listed players.  Pedro Alvarez also has a lot of upside.  Hopefully, he continues to perform.  Michael Young may not play 3rd this year but he qualifies.  You certainly could do worse however there was some decline in his game and that could be why Texas went after Beltre.  If you can take the terrible batting average then Reynolds is your guy.  Sandoval bursted onto the scene two years ago and fell way back last year.  From where I sit he is a very risky pick.

Players To Watch: Prado - (2b elig), Rolen - Cinc, Valencia - Minn: Prado gives you versatility, batting average, runs and on-base percentage.  Scott Rolen helped me out last year with Aramis struggling.  However, Scott is another year older.  Valencia is a young player who the Twins will have at third base.  Not sure if you want him as your starter at this point.

Black Balled List: Mark Reynolds - I can't put up with the strikeouts and the ridiculously low average.

It's important to get power stats from this position.  As a result go after one of those top six as soon as you can.  If you miss out, Casey McGehee and Pedro Alvarez may be good alternatives.

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6Mar/110

2011 Fantasy Projections: Shortstops

This is a pretty tough position after the top two players.  There are plenty who could serve you well however they also could give you headaches.

4*: Ramirez - Fla,  Tulowitzki - Colo.: These two will both go in the first round with Ramirez being in the top three.

3*: Reyes - NYM, Rollins - Philly: Both of these two could really help your fantasy team however injuries are in their histories.  It's come out that the Mets may not want Reyes back after this year.  How that will effect him will be interesting.

2*: Jeter - NYY, Ramirez - CWS:  I actually like both of these guys over Reyes and Phillips.  I really believe that Jeter will be a man on a mission this year looking to prove the critics wrong.  Alexei Ramirez is one of my favorites and should do well in that very good White Sox line-up

1*: Castro - Cubs, Drew - Ariz, Escobar - Tor, Hardy - Balt, Tejada - SF, Peralta - Det (elig): I really like Starlin Castro and look for him to have a good year.  Stephen Drew is also one of my favorites and I believe he may be of better value than Reyes.  I really think J.J. Hardy may have a good year in Baltimore.

Players to Watch: Asdrubal Cabrera - Cleve, Ian Desmond - Wash, Alex Gonzalez - Atl:  Cabrera and Desmond could both be good fantasy options this year.  Cabrera will bat lead off for the Tribe and should get plenty of stolen base opportunities.  Desmond had double-digit numbers in home runs and stolen bases in his first full season last year.  I think he will continue to build on that.

Black Balled List:  Rollins makes my list because he killed me a few seasons ago.  I will not draft him no matter what.

I'm hoping if I don't get the first pick that I'm not in a position where I would have to take Hensley or Tulo.  I'm willing to take a gamble with those two and one star players.

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6Mar/110

Red Rising: Leafs Fall 5-3

Red Rising is the fight song for the Chicago Black Hawks and last night the Hawks rose up and showed why they are the defending Stanley Cup Champions by defeating the young Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3.  The Leafs started the game very aggressively and it was the first time I can remember since the lockout that the ACC crowd was chanting "Go Leafs Go" right at the opening faceoff.  However, a glaring giveaway by Carl Gunnarsson, led to the Hawks first goal that Marian Hossa put by the James Reimer.  It was a softie and it set the tone. 

The Hawks jumped ahead 2-0 and then had a two man advantage but the Leafs did a great job in killing it off and there was the feeling that this might give the Leafs some momentum.  However, it was 3-0 before the Leafs scored their first goal in the second period.  The Hawks stormed back scoring two and ending the second up 5-1.

The Leafs valiantly fought back in the 3rd and with the score 5-2 Mikhail Grabovski was awarded a penalty shot.  Corey Crawford came up big and Grabovski was stopped.  A goal would have brought the Leafs within two but it wasn't meant to be.  Luke Schenn scored the Leafs final goal with under a minute to play but the Hawks did enough in the first 2 periods to chalk up the win.  The Leafs took the play to the Hawks in the third but it wasn't enough.  The fact that the team kept pushing despite being down 5-1 to start the third period is certainly encouraging. 

As I have been saying for the past week, the remainder of the season is a learning experience for this Leaf team.  Yesterday's lesson was clear: you can't make defensive zone giveaways against a top team in the league.  But for the first goal, Reimer was not at fault for the last four goals and was pulled in the third for J.S. Giguere.  The key will be how this team bounces back against the Islanders.  Reimer has shown that he has the character to bounce back.  Let's see how the rest of the group does against a team which they need to beat.

The Islanders may try to goon it up on them and they need to keep their poise.  Something needs to give with their power play.  They have been 0-for the last 3 games.  5,6,7 power play opportunities a game need to be capitalized. 

I can't be too upset with last night's loss.  Their young and they are going to have bad games.  It was unfortunate last night because the ACC crowd really was into it.  What is upsetting is I can't remember the last time they won on a Saturday night.  Maybe a better Hockey Night In Canada record and they would be in that 8th and final playoff spot.

This next week probably tells the tale as far as playoff chances.  Tuesday they go to the Island and then come home on Thursday for a return match-up against the Flyers and then a big four pointer on Saturday at home against Buffalo.  Hopefully, they can end the Hockey Night In Canada jinx.

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5Mar/110

Add-on To Second Base Projections

I really screwed up as I left off Dan Uggla from my projections list.  Uggla is a solid 3* performer for the Atlanta Braves.  Certainly deserves to be in the Pedroia-Phillips category.  Supplies power and rbi's from a position that rarely does.

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5Mar/110

2011 Fantasy Projections: Second Basemen

The second base position has a couple of studs but then there are plenty of risk/reward candidates.

5*: Robinson Cano - NYY

4*: Chase Utley - Philly

3*: Dustin Pedroia - Bost, Brandon Phillips - Cincy

2*: Kinsler - Tex, Figgins - Sea, K.Johnson - Ariz, Hill - Tor, Walker - Pitt

1*: Weeks - Milw, Prado - Atl, Beckham - CWS, Kendrick - LAA, Young - Colo

Nishioka - Minn, Brignac - TB

Cano is a stud and will be a first round pick for sure.  Because of the scarcity of top talent, Utley will go in the early second.  Utley is getting older but still should be able to produce.  Pedroia and Phillips are good picks once the top two are gone.  Both have possible health issues that need to be followed but if healthy can certainly help your fantasy team.

The 2* players all could help your team however there are no sure things.  Kinsler can be awesome however he has had a history of injury issues.  Figgins is not the Figgins of old.  He's usually one of my old reliables.  He will still get you stolen bases but hopefully the average will come back.  Kelly Johnson had a good year last year and hopefully that continues.  Aaron Hill had a big year in 2009 and not so big last year.  He would be worth a flyer on particularly as your draft goes into the mid to late rounds.  Neil Walker was a great waiver pickup for me last year.  He is certainly worth a selection however there are no guarantees as last year was his first year.

1*: Richie Weeks could have been ranked higher.  Again injuries always an issue with him however as the draft winds down you can certainly do worse.  Martin Prado is a decent pick and will eventually have outfield eligibility as he is being penciled in there to start for the Braves.  Gordon Beckham could be a real steal.  The kid made a position switch last year and its believed to have hurt him at the plate.  Beckham did come on toward the end of the year.  Howie Kendrick seems to be the perennial breakout candidate.  I'm tired of waiting.  Eric Young could be an interesting selection however risky going into the season with him as your starter.

Two guys to keep an eye on are Reid Brignac of Tampa Bay and Tsuyoshi Nishioka of Minnesota.  Both will start.  Brignac could be a useful player.  Nishioka has been heavily hyped coming to the U.S.  Could be high reward but could also be high risk.

Black Balled List: Howie Kendrick - LAA

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