2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Oufielders (part 1)
This is the first part of a 3 part projection list for outfielders. There are no real superstars however there are plenty of players who can help you with different categories. The key is getting those players who can help you in multiple categories.
4*: Braun - Milw, Gonzalez - Colo: Ryan Braun is a legitimate first round pick who has a proven track record. Carlos Gonzalez burst onto the scene last year and was a pleasant surprise for his fantasy owners. While CarGo will go high in the draft, remember last year was his first big fantasy season.
3*: Holliday - Stl, Crawford - Bost, Hamilton - Tex, Choo - Cleve, Cruz- Tex, Upton - Ariz., Heyward - Atl: Matt Holliday is truly the model of consistency and is worth a second round pick. Carl Crawford should do well in Boston and provide HR's and SB's along with average. Josh Hamilton and Shin Cho Choo are both good fantasy players however injuries are a concern. Choo has a sore shoulder so keep an eye on that. As far as Hamilton goes, if he remains injury free he could carry your fantasy team but there's always a chance of him going down. Nelson Cruz has become one of my favorite players. If this guy can stay healthy he can dominate. Justin Upton has plenty of upside but I would probably like him to be my second outfielder. The same can be said for Jason Heyward. This is Heyward's second season so have to be concerned about sophomore jinx.
Players to watch: If Braun falls in your lap in the first round take him. He's solid. The same can be said for Matt Holliday. Carl Crawford is a great selection in the second round. The others all have some type of risk attached.
Black Balled List: None in this group. But wait until we get to the rest.
Part 2 will cover all of the 2* players and part 3 will cover the 1*'s.
Leafs lose 4-3 in OT
Unfortunately, on a night that the Maple Leafs had an opportunity to pick up two points on Buffalo (who lost 3-1 to Pittsburgh) and Carolina, they settled for a point as they lost to the NY Islanders 4-3 in overtime. This is an act that we have seen too often, playing dow n to their opponent, especially against the Isles.
It was rather disturbing to hear Keith Aulie say that they may have not respected their opponent. Hmmmm.... I give the kid credit for saying it publicly but it is something that can't happen if you are fighting for your playoff lives. In any sport, the theory is you need to play .500 against the tough teams and clean up on the weak ones. Moreover, while the Leafs have played better of late, they have no business overlooking any opponent.
Aulie scored his first goal of his NHL career, however the Leafs never led in a game that they needed badly. Once again the power play was 0-3 making it now 0-24. Definitely not a great stat particularly for a team in desperate need of points. Brett Lebda had a terrible game last night and the defense last night as a whole seemed week. The top two lines did not generate much offense which resulted in Ron Wilson shaking up the lines.
Thursday night the Leafs will be playing a Philadelphia team which will be seeking revenge for last week's loss to Toronto. I have said all along that we need to see how this team progresses. Last night, this team took a step backwards. You can't leave a point on the table against a team like the Islanders. Aulie's comment is troubling. Young team or not it's inexcusable to overlook any opponent. The Leafs are not the 80's Oilers. Thursday they will be in tough and we will learn more about this team. Will they respond and show the game they played last week in Philly?? Or will they back down and fold. Hopefully, they learned something from last night. I guess will find out Thursday.
Tuesday Thoughts
While waiting for the sun to come up, some things rolling around in my head:
The Big East Tournament opens today and it promises to be one of the best ever. It will be interesting to see if Villanova can right the ship. Of course, I'll be pulling for St. John's, Notre Dame and Louisville.
Can you imagine the Garden if St. John's makes the finals??
Who would ever have thought that Notre Dame's basketball team would be ranked higher (4th in the country) than its football team(don't think it was ranked this year).
Certainly nice to hear about A.J. Burnett's impressive outing against the Phillies yesterday. Sure hope this is a sign of things to come this season.
Is there anyone more unlucky than Francisco Cervelli?? This kid needs to skip the Grapefruit League having suffered a broken wrist a couple of years ago and now a broken foot as a result of a foul tip. It's too bad because the 25 year old really came into camp determined and in great shape.
Been reading and listening to so called fantasy baseball experts who are predicting the continued decline of Derek Jeter. Here's hoping the Captain shuts these know-it-alls up.
Yesterday marked the 40th anniversary of the first Ali-Frazier fight. I remember listening to the round by round report on the local radio station. The broadcaster received wire accounts of what happened each round and read them as they came across the wire. I was a freshman in high school at the time and I remember winning a little bit of money on Smokin Joe's win.
The heavyweight class during the 60's and 70's was at its finest. There were a number of legitimate contenders and the fights were classics with Muhammad Ali usually a participant against such foes as Frazier, Ken Norton and George Foreman. Never will be the same.
Read the article in SI about the criminal element in college football. The story listed the number of players who were charged with crimes ranging from possession of drugs and underage drinking to assault, domestic violence, rape and possession of a deadly weapon. What was really disturbing was that schools indicated that they did not want to be known for looking to see if a recruit had a criminal record for fear that they would miss out on high end talent. What a disgrace! Of course the NCAA is more concerned about having no college football playoff than cleaning up its act.
Staying with college football, Yahoo reports that as a result of a two month investigation that Jim Tressel knew in April 2010 that his players were selling items which didn't come out until December 2010. In December, Ohio State was saying they just found out about the situation. If this is true, what a joke.
If you have the opportunity, take in Sportstime Ohio's Chuck's Last Call (CLC). The show is on from 10pm to 11pm. The host is Chuck Galetti. Very knowledgeable and entertaining.
Chuck had Peyton Hillis on last week and it was a great show. Hillis is a throw back and should do well in the west coast offense the Browns will institute this season (if there is a season).
Does anybody no what the story is with Sidney Crosby's injury?? What a shame. Best player in the game and its possible he won't play again this year.
All the controversy over the BYU player being suspended for having premarital sex misses the point. The school had set certain rules and the kid violated it. Case closed.
Here's hoping the Miami Heat keeps crying all the way out of the NBA playoffs with an early exit.
And finally, isn't it a shame that baseball doubleheaders have gone the way of rotary television antennas. (I'm really dating myself today) There was nothing better than taking in a Sunday doubleheader. Did it a few times at the old Municipal Stadium watching the Yankees take on the Tribe.
Don't forget this weekend: Spring forward (I hate losing the hour of sleep but at least summer is around the corner).
2011 Fantasy Projections: 3rd Baseman
The third base position is a critical one in terms of fantasy baseball because it typically provides power stats and decent to above average batting average. However, there may be a bigger drop off than at the shortstop position when you get by the top six.
5*: Evan Longoria - TB: Longoria is the class of the 3rd base position. If you have the opportunity in the 1st round take him.
4*: Wright - NYM, ARod - NYY: Both of the Big Apple's 3rd basemen are players who could really help your fantasy team this year. David Wright is solid and will probably go somewhere in the first round. There are some indications that ARod might be poised for a banner year and is definitely worth a pick early in the second round.
3*: Ryan Zimmerman - Wash: I really like this guy. He's proven that he can hit with power and a good batting average. Definitely someone to target.
2*: Beltre - Tex, Bautista - Tor(of - elig), Stewart - Colo, Ramirez - Cubs: There are no sure things here based on history. Beltre has had some injury problems this spring and the history of dropping off big time after signing a new contract. Bautista broke out on the scene last year. Not sure we can expect a 50 - plus home run season again. Stewart is a tease. Last year I thought was the year for him to break out but injuries derailed that thought. Aramis Ramirez is one of my old reliables. Last year, he killed me. Many are saying look for a bounce back year.
1*: McGehee - Milw, Alvarez - Pitt, Young - Tex, Reynolds - Balt, Sandoval - SF: Casey McGehee could be a nice play here especially if you miss out on the above listed players. Pedro Alvarez also has a lot of upside. Hopefully, he continues to perform. Michael Young may not play 3rd this year but he qualifies. You certainly could do worse however there was some decline in his game and that could be why Texas went after Beltre. If you can take the terrible batting average then Reynolds is your guy. Sandoval bursted onto the scene two years ago and fell way back last year. From where I sit he is a very risky pick.
Players To Watch: Prado - (2b elig), Rolen - Cinc, Valencia - Minn: Prado gives you versatility, batting average, runs and on-base percentage. Scott Rolen helped me out last year with Aramis struggling. However, Scott is another year older. Valencia is a young player who the Twins will have at third base. Not sure if you want him as your starter at this point.
Black Balled List: Mark Reynolds - I can't put up with the strikeouts and the ridiculously low average.
It's important to get power stats from this position. As a result go after one of those top six as soon as you can. If you miss out, Casey McGehee and Pedro Alvarez may be good alternatives.
2011 Fantasy Projections: Shortstops
This is a pretty tough position after the top two players. There are plenty who could serve you well however they also could give you headaches.
4*: Ramirez - Fla, Tulowitzki - Colo.: These two will both go in the first round with Ramirez being in the top three.
3*: Reyes - NYM, Rollins - Philly: Both of these two could really help your fantasy team however injuries are in their histories. It's come out that the Mets may not want Reyes back after this year. How that will effect him will be interesting.
2*: Jeter - NYY, Ramirez - CWS: I actually like both of these guys over Reyes and Phillips. I really believe that Jeter will be a man on a mission this year looking to prove the critics wrong. Alexei Ramirez is one of my favorites and should do well in that very good White Sox line-up
1*: Castro - Cubs, Drew - Ariz, Escobar - Tor, Hardy - Balt, Tejada - SF, Peralta - Det (elig): I really like Starlin Castro and look for him to have a good year. Stephen Drew is also one of my favorites and I believe he may be of better value than Reyes. I really think J.J. Hardy may have a good year in Baltimore.
Players to Watch: Asdrubal Cabrera - Cleve, Ian Desmond - Wash, Alex Gonzalez - Atl: Cabrera and Desmond could both be good fantasy options this year. Cabrera will bat lead off for the Tribe and should get plenty of stolen base opportunities. Desmond had double-digit numbers in home runs and stolen bases in his first full season last year. I think he will continue to build on that.
Black Balled List: Rollins makes my list because he killed me a few seasons ago. I will not draft him no matter what.
I'm hoping if I don't get the first pick that I'm not in a position where I would have to take Hensley or Tulo. I'm willing to take a gamble with those two and one star players.
Red Rising: Leafs Fall 5-3
Red Rising is the fight song for the Chicago Black Hawks and last night the Hawks rose up and showed why they are the defending Stanley Cup Champions by defeating the young Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Leafs started the game very aggressively and it was the first time I can remember since the lockout that the ACC crowd was chanting "Go Leafs Go" right at the opening faceoff. However, a glaring giveaway by Carl Gunnarsson, led to the Hawks first goal that Marian Hossa put by the James Reimer. It was a softie and it set the tone.
The Hawks jumped ahead 2-0 and then had a two man advantage but the Leafs did a great job in killing it off and there was the feeling that this might give the Leafs some momentum. However, it was 3-0 before the Leafs scored their first goal in the second period. The Hawks stormed back scoring two and ending the second up 5-1.
The Leafs valiantly fought back in the 3rd and with the score 5-2 Mikhail Grabovski was awarded a penalty shot. Corey Crawford came up big and Grabovski was stopped. A goal would have brought the Leafs within two but it wasn't meant to be. Luke Schenn scored the Leafs final goal with under a minute to play but the Hawks did enough in the first 2 periods to chalk up the win. The Leafs took the play to the Hawks in the third but it wasn't enough. The fact that the team kept pushing despite being down 5-1 to start the third period is certainly encouraging.
As I have been saying for the past week, the remainder of the season is a learning experience for this Leaf team. Yesterday's lesson was clear: you can't make defensive zone giveaways against a top team in the league. But for the first goal, Reimer was not at fault for the last four goals and was pulled in the third for J.S. Giguere. The key will be how this team bounces back against the Islanders. Reimer has shown that he has the character to bounce back. Let's see how the rest of the group does against a team which they need to beat.
The Islanders may try to goon it up on them and they need to keep their poise. Something needs to give with their power play. They have been 0-for the last 3 games. 5,6,7 power play opportunities a game need to be capitalized.
I can't be too upset with last night's loss. Their young and they are going to have bad games. It was unfortunate last night because the ACC crowd really was into it. What is upsetting is I can't remember the last time they won on a Saturday night. Maybe a better Hockey Night In Canada record and they would be in that 8th and final playoff spot.
This next week probably tells the tale as far as playoff chances. Tuesday they go to the Island and then come home on Thursday for a return match-up against the Flyers and then a big four pointer on Saturday at home against Buffalo. Hopefully, they can end the Hockey Night In Canada jinx.
Add-on To Second Base Projections
I really screwed up as I left off Dan Uggla from my projections list. Uggla is a solid 3* performer for the Atlanta Braves. Certainly deserves to be in the Pedroia-Phillips category. Supplies power and rbi's from a position that rarely does.
2011 Fantasy Projections: Second Basemen
The second base position has a couple of studs but then there are plenty of risk/reward candidates.
5*: Robinson Cano - NYY
4*: Chase Utley - Philly
3*: Dustin Pedroia - Bost, Brandon Phillips - Cincy
2*: Kinsler - Tex, Figgins - Sea, K.Johnson - Ariz, Hill - Tor, Walker - Pitt
1*: Weeks - Milw, Prado - Atl, Beckham - CWS, Kendrick - LAA, Young - Colo
Nishioka - Minn, Brignac - TB
Cano is a stud and will be a first round pick for sure. Because of the scarcity of top talent, Utley will go in the early second. Utley is getting older but still should be able to produce. Pedroia and Phillips are good picks once the top two are gone. Both have possible health issues that need to be followed but if healthy can certainly help your fantasy team.
The 2* players all could help your team however there are no sure things. Kinsler can be awesome however he has had a history of injury issues. Figgins is not the Figgins of old. He's usually one of my old reliables. He will still get you stolen bases but hopefully the average will come back. Kelly Johnson had a good year last year and hopefully that continues. Aaron Hill had a big year in 2009 and not so big last year. He would be worth a flyer on particularly as your draft goes into the mid to late rounds. Neil Walker was a great waiver pickup for me last year. He is certainly worth a selection however there are no guarantees as last year was his first year.
1*: Richie Weeks could have been ranked higher. Again injuries always an issue with him however as the draft winds down you can certainly do worse. Martin Prado is a decent pick and will eventually have outfield eligibility as he is being penciled in there to start for the Braves. Gordon Beckham could be a real steal. The kid made a position switch last year and its believed to have hurt him at the plate. Beckham did come on toward the end of the year. Howie Kendrick seems to be the perennial breakout candidate. I'm tired of waiting. Eric Young could be an interesting selection however risky going into the season with him as your starter.
Two guys to keep an eye on are Reid Brignac of Tampa Bay and Tsuyoshi Nishioka of Minnesota. Both will start. Brignac could be a useful player. Nishioka has been heavily hyped coming to the U.S. Could be high reward but could also be high risk.
Black Balled List: Howie Kendrick - LAA
Leafs Pass Latest Test With 3-2 Win Over Flyers
As stated here yesterday, we were going to continue to learn more about the Toronto Maple Leafs as they entered the Wells Fargo Center to face the Eastern Conference leading Philadelphia Flyers. Philly has never been a fun place to play and I wondered how this young team would handle that. Well, they handled it quite well in registering a 3-2 win over the Flyers and pulling within 3 points of the last playoff spot.
After Kris Versteeg's second goal of the night, the Flyers looked to be headed into the second intermission with a 2-1 lead. But, in the closing minute of the period, Dion Phaneuf pinched in toward the net and rapped the puck passed Sergei Bobrovsky to tie the game going into the third period.
The Leafs pressured the older and slower Flyer defense throughout the game and that's what led to the winning goal by Darryl Boyce to give the Leafs a third period lead that they never relinquished. Boyce pressured Sean O'Donnell deep inside the Flyer zone preventing the Flyer defenseman from moving the puck along the boards. Colby Armstrong followed up on O'Donnell and chipped the puck over to Boyce who charged to the net and swept the puck past Bobrovsky to give the Leafs the lead.
James Reimer came to the Leafs rescue again with about 40 seconds to play as Keith Aulie tried to clear the puck but it ended up right on a Flyer stick. A shot was fired and Reimer got a glove on it. The puck ended up high on the net, came down and Reimer reached back and caught the puck before it could fall behind him and into the net. It was an unbelievable save and all but ensured the Leafs would walk out of the Wells Fargo Center with an important win.
There is a lot to take from this game. First, it was clear as day that this Leaf team's speed gave the Flyers fits all night as they really pressured the Flyer defense. James Reimer continued to show why he may indeed be this team's goalie of the future. The kid looks unflappable and made some nice saves. It's obvious this team has tremendous confidence with him in the net.
The Leafs young defense continues to grow. As with any young players, there will be mistakes. It was obvious that Aulie was trying to clear the puck without icing it and as a result gave the puck away. However, he played well for the most part and it says a lot that Coach Wilson had him out there in the final minute. We also saw his fighting abilities as he leveled the tough Scott Hartnell in a first period fight.
It appears that Dion Phaneuf has picked up his offensive side over the last two games. I think it goes without saying that he has really looked like the player that Brian Burke traded for in these last two games. Mike Kommisarek, who has taken plenty of criticism and was flat footed on Versteeg's second goal, may have saved the game with an outstanding play on a two-on-one break in the third period.
The power play did not score and that is a problem. However, it looked like that the last few chances with the man advantage they were able to generate chances. I really think that the Tim Brent experiment needs to end. I would go with a three man rotation of Phaneuf-Gunnarsson and Lebda. Gunnarsson continues to impress as he gets more ice time.
With Carolina winning in overtime over Buffalo and the Rangers losing to Minnesota, The Hurricanes move to 7th with the Rangers falling to 8th. The Leafs find themselves one point behind Buffalo, 3 behind the Rangers and 4 behind Carolina. They have a game in hand on the Rangers but the Sabres have 2 games in hand on the Leafs. The heat is still on and there still is plenty of work to do with no guarantees of a playoff spot. But it's clear that there is a different feeling about this team. It's really fun to watch the confidence build in a group of 20 somethings who everyone was down on two months ago.
Whatever happens in this improbable run its clear to me that this team is moving in the right direction. What's also encouraging that unlike in the past, we have people in charge who know what they are doing and will use the off season to continue the team's improvement.
The Leafs next test is Saturday night against the Stanley Cup champion Black Hawks who are in a playoff fight themselves. They've won 5 in a row and will match the Leafs team speed. Another test coming up. Let's see how they respond. And while we're at it lets enjoy it!!!!
Leafs Win 3-2 in OT, Can’t We Just Enjoy The Ride?
The Toronto Maple Leafs overcame a 2-1 deficit heading into the third period and defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-2 in overtime on a goal by Mikhail Grabovski. Grabovski's goal was set up by an end to end rush by Dion Phaneuf. Instead of just dumping the puck deep or sending it behind the net, Phaneuf waited as he saw a line change occurring and passed the puck to an incoming Carl Gunnarsson who moved it quickly to Phil Kessel. Kessel in one motion passed it over to Grabovski, who just came onto the ice, and put it by Marc-Andre Fleury. It was the type of tic-tac-toe passing play that we have not seen in a long time by a group of Leaf players.
James Reimer was solid in goal for the Leafs as the Penguins had a substantial edge in shots on goal. Phil Kessel and Nikolai Kulemin had the other Leaf goals and Carl Gunnarsson had two assists. The win moved the Leafs four points behind 8th place Carolina, who play Buffalo tonight.
Being a realist, I know that the Leafs must continue to play at this level in order to have a chance to make the playoffs. Of course, if you listen to Mike Milbury they have no chance. Milbury may be right. But what I don't understand is the constant harping on the part of some that this is just typical Maple Leafs: Doing great after the All-Star break when the games are meaningless.
As I stated in an earlier post, a good portion of this team has not been in this situation before: playing important games down a stretch run. James Reimer is not J.S. Aubin or Andrew Raycroft or Vesa Toskala. This is a young 20 year old who has the potential to be the Leafs goalie of the future. This experience can only help his growth process. Keith Aulie, Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson are learning what it takes to perform in pressure situations as Ron Wilson continues to put them out there in penalty kill situations and at critical points in a game. Last night, Aulie was out their with Phaneuf in the last minute of regulation. These are all young 20-somethings, not Kaberle, Beauchimen, Finger or Hal Gill. And when you look at the forwards, Kulemin, Grabovski, Bozak, Kessel, MacArthur are learning what it takes and what their leading roles need to be in order to keep a team in the playoff hunt. This isn't Allison, Ponikarovsky, Antropov, Blake, Hagman, O'Neill, Johnny Pohl, Yanic Perreault, and Boyd Devereaux.
While the playoffs would be nice, and there is no one who would want to see that more than me, what's more important is seeing these young players grow and learning what it takes to win. Yesterday's game was not a great one. The first two periods the Leafs only managed 9 shots and were fortunate to be down only 2-1. But they fought back in the third and won it in overtime. That's part of the learning process: winning when you are not playing well. Yes, I know that Crosby and Malkin weren't there. But the Penguins have 80 points and have a winning record since the two superstars have been out.
This team is one of the youngest, if not the youngest teams in the league. If someone told you in November that they would be four points out of 8th with 18 games left without Kaberle, Beuchemin and Versteeg and a 20 year old in the net by the name of Reimer everyone would have been surprised and somewhat happy. This season is about building for next year and the one after that. The criticism in the past has been that this team is old and the farm system is barren. Well, their not old now and the farm system has young talent with Colborne, Kadri, Blacker, McKegg, Scrivens, Rynnas, etc.
Next assignment is tonight against the Flyers in Philadelphia. Will learn more about this group tonight. Enjoy it!!!!