tonytalkssports My Take on Sports, particularly the Yankees, Maple Leafs and Browns

Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 saw a 2-1 record once again bringing my season record up to 19-13 or 59% winning record. But in the last 6 weeks my record is 15-5 or 75% winning picks. In another card that I'm finding difficult, here are my Week 11 picks:

* Detroit (-7) over Carolina: The Lions were beat up last week in Chicago and find themselves tied with the Bears at 6-3. Atlanta and Dallas are 5-4 so a wild card berth is not a done deal for the Lions who have to face the Packers twice. Carolina has lost two in a row and are 0-3 on the road. Look for the Lions to shut down Cam Newton and for their offense to bounce back from last week's debacle in the Windy City. Detroit 24 Carolina 10.

* Green Bay (-14) over Tampa Bay: I hate to lay this many points but the Packers have been dominant at home. Their margins of victory at Lambeau Field have been 8 (vs Saints), 26 (vs Broncos), 21 (vs STL) and 38 (vs Vikings). The Green Bay and Tampa Bay defenses are at the bottom of the NFC however the Packer offense is much more prolific than that of the Bucs. The Pack are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite while Tampa Bay is 1-2 ATS as a road dog. I don't see that trend changing. Green Bay 35 Tampa Bay 13.

* San Francisco (-9 1/2) over Arizona: The Niners are red hot having won 7 in a row. They have the number 3 defense in the NFC and are 4-1 at home this year. ATS San Francisco is 4-0-1 as home favorite. Arizona is 1-4 on the road but 2-1 as a road underdog. The Cards have won 2 in a row knocking off the Rams and upsetting the Eagles. I don't see John Skelton being able to throw for over 300 yards as he did last week against Philadelphia. The Arizona offense will struggle against the Niner defense while the Cardinal defense (third from the bottom in the NFC) will have a problem with the running tandem of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. San Francisco 27 Arizona 14

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