tonytalkssports My Take on Sports, particularly the Yankees, Maple Leafs and Browns

Week 14 NFL Picks

Last week was a mediocre week as I went 2-2 bringing my overall record to 24-19. Over the last 9 weeks my record is 20-9. Here's hoping for a better week.

*Cincinnati (-3) over Houston: The Bengals are in a must win situation here. A loss would put them at 7-6 and a Jets and/or Titans victory would put the Bengals one game out of a playoff spot. They are at home playing a Houston team without their starting quarterback, their second string quarterback and their star wide receiver. The Texans have a two game lead over the Titans. This game is more important for the Bengals and they are at home. Cincinnati 20 Houston 14.

*Atlanta (-3) over Carolina: I swore I would never pick the Falcons again but this game is huge for them and their playoff chances. They are fighting with the Bears and the Lions for wild card spots. A Falcon loss and the other two teams winning would put the Falcons a game behind. Keep in mind, the Bears hold the tie breaker over the Falcons having defeated them on opening day. The Panthers will not go down easy but this is a huge game for Atlanta. Atlanta 27 Carolina 21.

*New York Giants (+3 1/2) over Dallas: For the G-men this is do or die. A loss and they can kiss their playoff chances good-bye and it probably means that Tom Coughlin will be out as Head Coach at the end of the season. They have lost 4 in a row, including a gut-wrencing loss last week at home against Green Bay. The Cowboys had a chance to take a two game lead over the Giants but dropped a game they should have won in Arizona. Both of these teams are inconsistent. But I'm going with the team that needs it more. New York Giants 30 Dallas 28.

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Tomorrow my thoughts on the Browns and their handling of Colt McCoy after being hit by James Harrison

Happy Thanksgiving: A Week 12 NFL Pick

Happy Thanksgiving!!! Along with turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie, football is a Thanksgiving tradition. The traditional Thanksgiving game in Detroit has been a yawn since Barry Sanders retired but this year will be different as the 10-0 Green Bay Packers take on the 7-3 Detroit Lions. Of the three games today this is the one I am making a selection on and here we go:

* Detroit (+6) over Green Bay: This is a big game for the Lions as they are tied with Chicago at 7-3 and have Atlanta, the Giants and Dallas breathing down their necks at 6-4. It's a given that unless there is a monumental collapse, the Packers are going to win the NFC North so in order for the Lions to make the playoffs they will need to go as a wild card and that's why this game is big for them. While Green Bay's offense has been lighting it up (3rd best in the NFC), their defense is second to last in the NFC. Moreover, their pass defense is the worst in the NFC and the only pass defense worse than theirs in the whole league is New England's.

The Lions meanwhile have the second best defense in the NFC and their pass defense is ranked 1st in the conference. Offensively, the Lions are ranked 6th in the NFC and their passing attack is 5th in the conference. This is going to be a great test for both teams as the Packers have been relying on their offense to win games and this will be the best defense they have faced this year. On the flip side, Matthew Stafford should be able to exploit the vulnerable Packer pass defense. In what should be a high scoring affair: Green Bay 38 Detroit 35.

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The other Thanksgiving games should be good ones particularly the night game between San Francisco and Baltimore. We should learn a lot about the 49ers after that game. I will have the rest of my Week 12 Picks Saturday morning. I'm 17-6 over the last seven weeks and 21-14 overall.

Have a very Happy Thanksgiving!!!!!!

Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 saw a 2-1 record once again bringing my season record up to 19-13 or 59% winning record. But in the last 6 weeks my record is 15-5 or 75% winning picks. In another card that I'm finding difficult, here are my Week 11 picks:

* Detroit (-7) over Carolina: The Lions were beat up last week in Chicago and find themselves tied with the Bears at 6-3. Atlanta and Dallas are 5-4 so a wild card berth is not a done deal for the Lions who have to face the Packers twice. Carolina has lost two in a row and are 0-3 on the road. Look for the Lions to shut down Cam Newton and for their offense to bounce back from last week's debacle in the Windy City. Detroit 24 Carolina 10.

* Green Bay (-14) over Tampa Bay: I hate to lay this many points but the Packers have been dominant at home. Their margins of victory at Lambeau Field have been 8 (vs Saints), 26 (vs Broncos), 21 (vs STL) and 38 (vs Vikings). The Green Bay and Tampa Bay defenses are at the bottom of the NFC however the Packer offense is much more prolific than that of the Bucs. The Pack are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite while Tampa Bay is 1-2 ATS as a road dog. I don't see that trend changing. Green Bay 35 Tampa Bay 13.

* San Francisco (-9 1/2) over Arizona: The Niners are red hot having won 7 in a row. They have the number 3 defense in the NFC and are 4-1 at home this year. ATS San Francisco is 4-0-1 as home favorite. Arizona is 1-4 on the road but 2-1 as a road underdog. The Cards have won 2 in a row knocking off the Rams and upsetting the Eagles. I don't see John Skelton being able to throw for over 300 yards as he did last week against Philadelphia. The Arizona offense will struggle against the Niner defense while the Cardinal defense (third from the bottom in the NFC) will have a problem with the running tandem of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. San Francisco 27 Arizona 14

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